This extensive analysis of exit poll data yields several key conclusions about the voting behavior of American Jews:
- Jewish presidential voting can be divided into two distinct eras. In the first period, from 1972 through 1988, Republican candidates for president attracted between 31% and 37% of the Jewish vote.
- In the second period, from 1992 through 2008, the GOP share of the Jewish vote dropped to between 15% and 23%.1
“There does not seem to be any meaningful decline in Jewish voting for the Democratic congressional candidate (Deutch) in April 2010 among Jewish voters— as compared to the Democratic percentage of the vote for president or congress in 2008.
Despite the decline in support for the president among all voters nationwide over the course of the last year, Jewish voters in these precincts maintained their support for the Democratic congressional nominee of 2010….”
“We now have three sources of data for determining the level of support Barack Obama received from American Jews:
a) The national exit poll conducted by Edison Media Research for ABC, CNN, CBS, Fox, NBC, and the AP.
b) The combined results of separate exit polls in 28 states
c) The Gallup daily tracking results for part of the month leading up to election day
Each of these data sources has strengths and weaknesses, but they converge in finding that the President-elect garnered between 74% and 78% of the total Jewish vote and 77%-78% of the two-party Jewish vote….”
“Never before has so much attention been lavished on predicting Jewish voting patterns prior to a presidential election.
This report is unprecedented in that it brings together in one document multiple sets of data on Jewish presidential voting. In past presidential years, most of this data has been unavailable for analysis.
The best estimate of the two-party Jewish vote in 2004 – based on the National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll sample of 1511 Jewish voters – is:
- Senator John Kerry: 78%
- President George Bush: 22%…”